Total BTC owned by users
Visionary Financial Takes a look at Bitcoin price, fundamental and technical analysis. Some topics covered include Bitcoin market dominance, international monetary fund, network momentum and performance metrics.
Visionary Financial - Crypto Market Report Authors
Jeff Guzzi (Founder): Jeff has acquired hands on experience in Portfolio Management, Venture Capital and Private Equity. Between Merrill Lynch / Edge and a mid-sized asset manager in Chicago, he earned a Series 7, Series 63 and Series 65. Jeff started investing, researching & mining cryptocurrency in 2013. He founded Visionary Financial because he strongly believes Crypto & Blockchain are going to change financial infrastructure.
Kenny Cheung (Analyst): Kenny is a senior trader at a market neutral Crypto Fund. He has worked in traditional finance with experience in fixed income trading, investment banking and equity research at bulge bracket firms including Merrill Lynch, Credit Suisse and CIBC World Markets. He holds a Bachelor of Commerce degree from the University of Toronto and has completed the Chartered Financial Analyst Program ( CFA )
Jordan Daniels (Head Business Development): Jordan is an experienced creative professional and has provided production support to major studio film/tv production companies including Marvel, Fox, CBS, and NBC. he’s also lead and produced events for clients such as Gulfstream Jets and Zoo Atlanta under Tony Brewer & Company.
Bitcoin Year to Date Performance
2019 has arguably been a progressive year for Bitcoin as many regulators have gotten involved in the digital asset space. Regulators are understanding the potential for Blockchain Technology and Peer-to-Peer money transfers in the form of Cryptocurrency and Bitcoin. Despite all the uncertainties this year, Bitcoin has recovered very well this year and is outperforming some of the largest companies in the world on a ( year to date ) basis. As we discussed in a previous report, countries like Argentina have seen explosive growth in 2019 and are linked to high Bitcoin usage. Aside from Argentina, you are seeing large Bitcoin usage in Chile, Columbia, Japan, Kazakhstan and others. CoinDance is a source that can be utilized to further understand Bitcoin volume / usage. By following Bitcoin price action this year, we are witnessing the following metrics:
YTD ( Year to Date): +154%
1 Year Performance: +16.90%
3 Year Performance: +1,344%
5 Year Performance: +1,480%
Aside From Regulators Involvement, IMF Continues to Express Interest
The IMF ( International Monetary Fund ) recently released a report titled “The Rise of Digital Money.” For those unfamiliar with the IMF - they are an organization that is formulated by 189 countries, with the ultimate goal of creating “global monetary cooperation.” The last couple years, Managing Director Christine Lagarde has said some relatively positive things regarding the potential impact of distributed ledger technology. Back in April of this year, CNBC broke a story regarding Lagarde and her comments on Cryptocurrency. She had mentioned that Cryptocurrency is clearly shaking the traditional systems. The “Rise of Digital Money” piece was very interesting as the IMF stated that “the two most common forms of money today will face tough competition and could even be surpassed.” This was a strong statement by the IMF and truly shows how far the cryptocurrency/digital asset space has gone the last 10 years. The full report goes into further detail as the IMF talks about a potential future where people are paying for coffee with digital assets that are backed by gold or other extremely safe liquid assets. The report by the IMF regarding digital assets and gold is very interesting especially due to President trump and his most recent Fed pick, Judy Shelton who has expressed interest in both digital assets and a gold standard.
Bitcoin Network Momentum
By monitoring the Blockchain momentum we are able to identify when we are closing in on the start of the next BTC price bull run.
Month over Month Change: -4.7%; YTD Change: -12.7%
Bitcoin Network Momentum continues to trend downwards and reached a YTD low of ~267k. Over the past month, BTC’s Network Momentum has ranged between 267k-286k. On-chain volume (proxy for long term investor activity) has diverged from the price movement of BTC since mid May. This could be due to a rise in short term market participants in relation to longer term investors since short term traders have transactions that typically happen off-chain.
As we mentioned in earlier reports, previous BTC market cycles have gone as follows:
Early Bear Phase: Daily transaction value have dropped down to 100K BTC a day. Price is falling.
Late Bear Phase: Daily Transaction values are rising. Price is broadly flat
Bull Phase: Daily Transactions have reached a sufficient minimum value (220K in the last market cycle, 150K in the one before) where the market finally responds and price increases.
BTC Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV Ratio)
Market Value: (AKA Market Cap) is equal to the latest price multiplied by the number of Bitcoin units outstanding. Instead of counting all the mined coins at equal, current price, Realized Value (RV) refers to the aggregated market price of all BTC UTXOs when last moved.
Realized cap adjusts for lost coins and coins used for “HODLING.” MVRV is calculated by dividing Market Value by Realized Value on a daily basis. Two historical thresholds emerge: 3.7 (which denotes overvaluation) and 1 (which denotes undervaluation).
Month over Month Change: +27.9%; YTD Change: +156%
Bitcoin’s MVRV increased 28% in the past month and has rallied along with BTC’s price. The current value is 2.2 and is well below the overvalued threshold of 3.7 but above the undervalued threshold of 1.0.
Bitcoin Mayer Multiple
Introduced by Trace Mayer as a way to gauge the current price of Bitcoin against its long range historical movements (200-day moving average), the Mayer Multiple highlights when Bitcoin is overbought or oversold in the context of longer time frames. The MM is calculated by dividing the Bitcoin price by the 200-day Ma. The MM essentially quantified the gap between the price and 200-day MA to identify points where Bitcoin enters a speculative bubble. In other words: when its price significantly exceeds its intrinsic value or points of seller exhaustion. A Mayer Multiple above 1 could be considered a sign of a bull market and below 1 could be considered a bear market. Any multiple above 2.4 threshold has historically shown to signify the beginning of a speculative bubble.
Month over Month Change: -36.3%; YTD Change: +142%
After peeking above long term resistance at 2.4 (dotted line), BTC’s mayer multiple has declined over the past month until reaching a current level of 1.56. The last few times the multiple reached 2.4 resulted in a pullback to around 1.5 - which means we could be close to a bottom in the current sell off for BTC.
Bitcoin Market Dominance
Bitcoin Dominance reached December 2017 highs around 67% before being rejected at this level. The rejection subsequently lead to a brief rally in alt coins, which ended quickly as Bitcoin continued to pull the entire market downwards over the past few weeks. Bitcoin Market Dominance currently sits at 64% meaning its value makes up 64% of the cryptocurrency market.
Sources: KoyFin, Charts.woobull.com, Buybitcoinworldwide.com, Thetie.io, Coinmarketcap, Blockchain, Morningstar & TradingView
- 24 Hours Change
- Bitcoin (BTC) $10102.97 1.31%
- Ethereum (ETH) $190.40 1.03%
- Ripple (XRP) $0.27 2.11%
- Bitcoin Cash (BCH) $309.14 2.07%
- Litecoin (LTC) $73.68 2.00%
- EOS $26.15 -0.21%
- Binance Coin (BNB) $3.65 1.38%
- Bitcoin SV (BSV) $1.00 -0.02%
- Tether (USDT) $80.45 1.40%
- Stellar (XLM) $0.05 6.42%